How will textile raw materials be interpreted next year?

2016 is a tough year for the textile industry. Due to the adjustment of the reserve cotton policy, cotton prices have been leaping forward, prices have continued to rise, and although prices have fallen in the middle, the overall price has continued to strengthen, and cotton prices have continued to rise. other textile raw materials prices rise, viscose, polyester, nylon and other textile raw materials also continued to rise, coupled with the advent of the G20 summit and the strongest environmental protection measures, but also makes the chemical fiber raw materials prices. From the entire textile industry, December entered the off-season demand, the market rose and then fell, textiles index is expected to top 870 points, the lowest 840 points. According to monitoring, the chemical fiber sector rose collectively in November. PTA spot price was 4959 yuan/ton at the end of November, up 3.38% month-on-month, and PTA futures once surged to 5360 yuan/ton; the domestic ethylene glycol market has risen more than 18% since October. Polyester filaments were supported by the surge in upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices, and prices continued to rise, creating a new high for the year. At the end of 16 years, how is the cotton and viscose market interpreted for the 17-year textile market?

Cotton supply and demand "tight balance"

Cotton prices rose steadily in November, once breaking through the high of 16021 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic cotton market has finally stabilized. As of the 19th, the price of the pick-up price of the spot platform in Xinjiang was “double 29” and “double 30” at 16000-16200 yuan/ton, and the actual actual transaction price was negotiable. The picking price of the platform in the cotton picking platform is “double 28” at 15500-15600 yuan/ton. In particular, Xinjiang’s cotton subsidies have been issued in recent days, bringing good news to cotton. As of the 19th, the 3128 grade cotton bales of the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin were at 15,700-15,800 yuan/ton, and the small cotton prices were 14,500-15,300 yuan/ton. The market fluctuated slightly and the overall stability was stable.

Judging from the survey, the mentality of cotton enterprises in Xinjiang is now quite different. Some ginning factories are paying close attention to sales, and strive to achieve “double settlement zero” before the end of February 2017; some ginning factories are tightening “double 28”. "Double 2" and "Double 30" cotton resources (including machine cotton picking), the enthusiasm for short-term transfer to the mainland and the sale of quotations is not high. Waiting for the domestic cotton price after March 2017, "there is no sound, it is flying." The opportunity is coming. For the 2016/17 cotton price, some institutions and cotton companies believe that the probability of breaking through 17,000 yuan/ton and 18,000 yuan/ton is relatively large. Before the Spring Festival, the cotton price will be bottomed out, and the market will follow March 6, 2017. cotton reserves to round out and expand the upside, cotton, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials will drive before the entire textile and garment industry chain lines.

According to the feedback from relevant government departments, research institutions and enterprises, the “tight balance” of domestic cotton supply and demand in 2016/17 is a consensus, but to what extent is it “tight”? What should be the balance of Chinese cotton? For supply, it is easier to estimate:

1. Production: Everyone has a bottom in mind. This is because with the progress of cotton purchase, processing and public inspection, the error of domestic cotton production estimation in 2016 is getting smaller and smaller, and the production range of 470-4.8 million tons is gradually being used by the industry. Recognize and use.

2. Imports: 2017 cotton import quotas there is no need to guess, only 894,000 tons within 1% tariff quotas, processing trade and sliding tariff quota issuance expectations have been shattered, even with the greatest imports to estimates, the 2016/17 annual foreign cotton imports The total amount will not exceed 1.2 million tons (from January to October 2016, China's accumulated cotton imports totaled 696,300 tons, of which 41,300 tons were imported in October. Therefore, as of the end of September, the remaining 2016 quota was about 300,000 tons).

3. Reserve cotton rotation: According to the announcement of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, this year's new cotton listing period (until the end of February next year) will not arrange for reserve cotton rotation. The 2017 reserve cotton round sales will start from March 6th. The time is tentatively scheduled for the end of August, and the daily listing sales volume is temporarily arranged at 30,000 tons. Considering the situation of the previous auction, it may happen. Therefore, if the daily turnover of 20,000 tons is calculated, the round-off transaction volume will be about 2.5-2.6 million tons. (The expected flow rate is less than 35%), then the total supply is 470+120+250=8.4 million tons.

In 2016/17, the domestic cotton supply is more than 500,000-600,000 tons (if the reserve cotton auction is hot, the volume will reach 3 million tons, the supply will be more than 1 million tons), but considering the quality and spinning of the real estate cotton this year. Sexually low; Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang hand-collected cotton has a greater overall strength than the intensity, length, and horse value, and the quality of the reserve cotton is uncertain. Therefore, the high-grade and high-quality Xinjiang cotton may have a chance to rebound after May. .

Viscose line is easy to rise and fall under existing production conditions

Of viscose staple fiber material as cotton, regenerated cellulose fibers, in recent years, rapid worth it. Even once there was a sticky short instead of cotton. Industry insiders boldly predict that the production of viscose staple fiber in China will exceed China's cotton from 2020 to 2021. So, will viscose staple fiber replace cotton? How do you interpret the short-selling market in 2017?

As China's Shandong spinning industry gathering, but also cotton, cotton yarn active area of trade, the core is semi-finished textile manufacturing industry chain, linking upstream and downstream industries mature, local production of conventional fiber products, black silk, flame retardant The annual output of such products is ranging from 1-2 million tons. Each family said that the actual inventory is not large, the spot supply is relatively tight, and there are staged adjustments under the factors of downstream demand, capital, and relatively high price at the end of the year, but the cost is rising, the demand is growing, and the cotton is easy to rise and fall. In the background, the market situation in 2017 is relatively optimistic. The trajectory of history tells us that all development must be regular. Let's take a look at the trend of viscose staple fiber in the past four years. In fact, the price of viscose staple fiber in October has been in a state of no rise and fall, mainly because of the characteristics of viscose staple fiber. Because the fabric woven from viscose staple fiber is mostly cool, such as human cotton cloth , bamboo fiber fabric, modal fabric, downstream procurement is mostly used to make spring and summer clothing. Therefore, when the market enters the sales season of medium-thick fabrics, the market demand for viscose staple fiber as raw material is not as good as it used to be, which has dragged down its price trend to some extent.

Everyone cares about the relationship between viscose and cotton. Looking back over the past 10 or 20 years, the price of cotton and viscose is very close, but the capacity of cotton is no longer growing, if you need more comfortable fiber, and cotton performance. Close to the fiber, there is no doubt that glue is the best choice. From 2005 to 2010, the price of viscose staple fiber has been higher than the price of cotton. However, after the country’s policy of purchasing and storage began, it was seen that the price of sticky staples was falling all the way, but the price of cotton remained at a high position. Everyone started to pay attention to cotton futures, and before that, there were very few people concerned about this. Many people hope that the price of cotton futures will affect the viscose market. Xiaobian believes that viscose will go out of its own market according to the development of downstream market and product development. Maybe the price of viscose will be higher than cotton in the next few years, which is a normal phenomenon.

On the whole, the current viscose industry has higher profits, which may promote other people to enter the industry to increase production capacity, increase supply, and prices will continue to fall in the same period of demand, but the next year and a half It won't happen. Therefore, Xiao Bian expects that the average price of viscose will be higher next year than this year.