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Recently, PX market started a strong rebound after the shock pattern, the market price showed a sharp rise in the trend, in which crude oil prices remain high for its strong cost support, while the downstream PTA market rally and PX market supply and demand bias Tight also stimulated the upward price of PX. As of January 18, FOB Korea PX prices in Asia closed up to close at 1634.50-1635.50 US dollars / ton, CFR China Taiwan to close at 1652.50-1653.50 US dollars / ton. PX market prices of raw materials for the European market also rose sharply, closing price of 1546-1550 US dollars / tonne FOB Rotterdam. First, the upper reaches of raw materials, providing cost support Crude oil as a source of chemical products, but also the PX upstream raw materials. Recent crude oil futures prices hit a record high, the impact on the downstream PX market is self-evident, making the market confidence in raw materials PX greatly increased. At present, international crude oil futures prices have been fluctuating above 90 US dollars, which can be said to provide strong cost support for the high running of raw material PX market. As of the close of the 18th, the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in February settled at $ 91.38 a barrel; London Brent North Sea crude oil futures closed at $ 97.80 a barrel. Second, the downstream market rose to form a promotion As we all know, the consumption of raw materials PX mainly in the field of PTA, global production of 80% of the yield of PX was used to produce PTA. Therefore, PTA changes in market conditions can be said that the impact of raw materials PX market conditions, a key factor. According to market data, raw material PX and PTA spot market correlation coefficient of about 0.96. Recent raw material PTA spot market prices rise, to some extent, the raw material PX market prices formed a role in promoting. From the current downstream PTA market conditions, PTA market overall steady upward trend. As of January 19, the East China market, the offer price held by the holder of yuan / ton in the vicinity of the mainstream market price of yuan negotiations / ton in the vicinity. PTA outside the disk market, the Taiwan stock quotation price in 1370 US dollars / ton in the vicinity of the mainstream market price of negotiations in the 1360-1365 US dollars / ton; and Korean goods negotiate prices in the 1350-1355 US dollars / ton in the vicinity. In the meantime, the recent P / E futures market in Zhengshang also fluctuated at a high level. As of the 19th, the PTA main contract 1105 of Zhengshang Port has soared to 11,076 yuan / ton. Third, the device centralized maintenance, tight market supply At the same time, PX market supply is another important factor in the market price of raw materials PX. As part of the planned PX plant parking maintenance, combined with PTA plant unit load remained at full capacity; and production of 1 ton PTA requires 0.655 tons of PX calculation, both for new capacity or total capacity, PX are less than PTA; This makes PX market supply tight supply, a direct result of PX market price increases. According to market sources, the operating load of domestic PX units remains at 7-8% on the whole; however, the domestic spot liquidity is not large. Meanwhile, as Japan's largest PX producer, JX Nippon Oil and Energy Corp., the average operating rate of all existing plants is about 80%. In 2011, it plans to shut down five PX plants for 40-45 days of planned overhaul; of which, the 350,000-tonne Mizushima plant will be closed at the end of January, 420,000 tons per year in Oita, 420,000 tons per year in Kashima Of the units will be parked in mid-May, while Shui Dao 1 and 2 will stop in September and October respectively. Taken together, the impact of cost support on PX is more pronounced. In the meantime, the tight supply of PX and the steady upward movement in the downstream market have driven the PX market to further rise. It is expected that PX will continue to rise. (Silk Network Qian Linxia) (E04)
November 28, 2018